Simplified mental representations as a cause of overprecision

Abstract Although no consensus on the issue exists yet, some evidence indicates that people are typically overprecise in their inferences. In particular, subjective confidence intervals often too narrow when compared with Bayesian ones. This paper uses a quasi-Bayesian theory and lab experiments to explore overprecision learn about empirical frequency ? of random event. Motivated by literature limited attention, we hypothesize that, there is large number potential values , individuals mentally operate simplified representations objective state space. Their mental models however sophisticated they co-move signals observed, focusing most consistent available. As result, elaborate accurate point estimates but also become confident them, as hardly reflect those would call more into doubt conclusions. this line, subjects our experiment almost exclusively report overly intervals, unbiased (except takes extreme values, i.e., close 0 or 1). Indirect suggests consider 1/5